With conference tournaments concluding this week and the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 wrapping their regular seasons this weekend, résumés will all be finalized by Saturday and all the drama gets solved on the Selection Show on Sunday (6 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The 31 automatic bids will already know their NCAA tournament fate, just not their status. The other 33 spots will be filled with at-large teams. Volleyball seeds the top eight seeds in each region and the top-four in each region serve as first- and second-round hosts. The rest of the bracket is filled out to balance it competitively and geographically. The highest-remaining seeds also host the regionals, and the 2025 Final Four is in Kansas City, Missouri, on Dec. 18 with the finals on Dec. 21.
Bracket watch
Two of those No. 1 seeds should be Texas and Kentucky. After their epic five-set SEC tournament championship game, won by the Wildcats, it’s hard to imagine they aren’t among the top four teams in the country. Barring something stunning this weekend, Nebraska will be the No. 1 overall team. The fourth No. 1 seed is now the biggest question mark. Arizona State slots in there now by virtue of its No. 3 Rating Percentage Index (RPI) ranking, ninth ranked strength of schedule (SOS) and 6-3 record against the top 25 in the RPI.
However, an argument could be made that the quality of Pittsburgh’s top 25 wins is better and that would supersede the Panthers lower RPI and SOS than the Sun Devils. Pittsburgh may be able to strengthen that argument with wins over Louisville and Georgia Tech. Convincing wins in those two matches and expect the Panthers to elevate to that final No. 1 spot. A Louisville sweep of Pittsburgh and Stanford and the Cardinals will stake a claim to a No. 1 seed.
Top seedings
No. 1 seeds: Nebraska, Kentucky, Texas, Arizona State
No. 2 seeds: Pittsburgh, SMU, Texas A&M, Creighton
No. 3 seeds: Louisville, Stanford, Wisconsin, Purdue
No. 4 seeds: Indiana, Minnesota, Miami, USC
No. 5 seeds: BYU, Kansas, Iowa State, TCU
No. 6 seeds: Tennessee, Baylor, Colorado, Kansas State
No. 7 seeds: Penn State, Florida, Northern Iowa, Marquette
No. 8 seeds: Michigan, Western Kentucky, North Carolina, UTEP
Rest of the field (alphabetical): American, Arkansas State, Campbell, UC Davis, UCLA, Central Arkansas, Cincinnati, Coppin State, Eastern Illinois, Fairfield, Florida A&M, Georgia Tech, High Point, Long Island, Loyola-Chicago, Maryland-Baltimore County, Northern Colorado, Princeton, Rice, St. Thomas, San Diego, South Dakota State, South Florida, Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Tulsa, Utah State, Utah Valley, Villanova, Wofford, Wright State, Xavier
(The rest of the field teams wouldn’t be seeded)
Bubble watch
Upsets in conference tournament games this week dealt a blow to some bubble teams. The Summit League now has two teams in the field with St. Thomas beating South Dakota State and earning the automatic bid, stealing a spot for a bubble team with the Jackrabbits staying in the field as an at-large bid. Tulsa did the same in the American. That made the second round SEC tournament losses by bubble teams Auburn, Georgia, Missouri and Oklahoma even harder to overcome. None of those teams are likely to make the NCAA tournament now.
Coming off a bad week, Michigan State can still play its way back into the field with wins over USC and UCLA. Oregon’s remaining schedule — Rutgers and Maryland — doesn’t offer as much résumé help. The Ducks will have a tougher time getting into the field now. Georgia Tech solidifies a spot with an upset of either Stanford or Pittsburgh or even playing competitively in both.
Last Four In: South Dakota State, Georgia Tech, Villanova, South Florida
First Four Out: Oregon, Michigan State, Dayton, Arizona
Next Four Out: Missouri, James Madison, Auburn, Pepperdine
Conference breakdown
Big 12: 8
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big East: 4
American: 3
CUSA: 2
Summit: 2
