2025 Stanley Cup first-round betting guide: Best bets and Conn Smythe predictions

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs begin Saturday with 16 teams looking to etch their name onto Lord Stanley’s Cup. Sergei Bobrovsky and the reigning champion Florida Panthers aim to defend their crown against a crowded Eastern Conference field that includes the Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, and Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Winnipeg Jets, behind Vezina and Hart Trophy favorite Connor Hellebuyck, look to make their first Stanley Cup Final appearance, but to do so, they will have to take on the best of the West, including recent champions the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, as well as last season’s runner-up, the Edmonton Oilers. Meanwhile, those Oilers will face the Los Angeles Kings for the fourth straight postseason.

The Washington Capitals have the top spot in the East and are led by the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer Alex Ovechkin, who broke Wayne Gretzky’s record on April 6.

With the stage set, we asked Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash for their best bet from each of the first-round series as well as to identify the top Conn Smythe Trophy candidate from each team should it go on to play for the Stanley Cup.

All times Eastern. Odds accurate as of time of publication. For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 1: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, Alberta; Saturday, 6 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Blues +1.5 (-175), Jets -1.5 (+145)

• Series winner: Blues (+180), Jets (-215)

• Series length: Four games (+550), five games (+260), six games (+200), seven games (+210)

Best Bet: Kyle Connor most points in series (+230). If Connor Hellebuyck continues to perform as he has since October — and there isn’t ample reason to believe otherwise — the Blues will have difficulty getting too much past the runaway Vezina favorite. One doesn’t string together a 2.00 GAA and .925 SV% through 63 games by happenstance. In the other crease, Jordan Binnington hasn’t been as stingy of late, conceding 12 goals in his past four games. Ranked seventh in the league in total points, Connor has produced consistently all season long. (K. Connor most shots on goal in series (-130) also appeals despite the more modest payout.)

If the Blues win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Robert Thomas (200-1). If the Blues somehow manage to slay dragon after menacing dragon in the West en route to winning it all, their top center is likely to deserve a hearty portion of the credit. No one, not even Nikita Kucherov, has kicked in more points — 30 in 17 contests — since March 13. St. Louis isn’t even in a playoff conversation without such an MVP-worthy performance from Thomas down the stretch.

If the Jets win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Connor Hellebuyck (+1200). Why overthink it? The best goalie in the NHL — a Hart favorite for many — is the obvious candidate to jam another piece of hardware in his cabinet this year. The Jets won’t last long this spring if he flounders. — Matiash

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 1: American Airlines Center, Dallas; Saturday, 8:30 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Avalanche -1.5 (+190), Stars +1.5 (-265)

• Series winner: Avalanche (-155), Stars (+135)

• Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+270), six games (+195), seven games (+190)

Best bet: Valeri Nichushkin series total goals OVER 2.5 (+120). The only way Nichushkin doesn’t score at least three goals in this series is if he falls hurt or the set lasts only four games. Otherwise, rocking out 21 in 43 games on a 17.8% shooting percentage, he should better that mark. Also, forced to leave his team the past two consecutive postseasons, the imposing power forward is likely to feel extra incentivized to make up for lost time.

Series spread bet: Avalanche -1.5 (+115). The Stars aren’t bringing the best version of themselves to this dance. No Miro Heiskanen for most, if not all, of the first round. Essential forward Jason Robertson was last spotted wearing a brace on his knee. Goalie Jake Oettinger has surrendered a total of 17 goals in four games to wrap 2024-25. A healthy Avalanche team — bolstered by key additions made all season long — appears in the driver’s seat in the here and now.

If the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Nathan MacKinnon (+1400). Anyone who believes the Avalanche holster a good shot at securing their second championship in four years might as well immediately side with their most powerful engine up front. After witnessing how much sway MacKinnon provided Canada in the recent 4 Nations Face Off, it’s no great stretch to see him kick in the same influence for his NHL squad. Avs defenseman Cale Makar won it back in 2022. This turn could likely belong to the skater who averaged 1.47 points/game since puck drop in October.

If the Stars win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Wyatt Johnston (+4000). If Jason Robertson‘s knee injury is anywhere near as bad as it appears, the Stars will need as much firepower as they can get from the gifted 21-year-old Johnston. Averaging essentially 19 minutes per game, Johnston racked up 33 goals and 38 assists in 2024-25. Of course, the more charming pick would be new forward Mikko Rantanen (+3000). How about a Cup and piece of individual hardware as an ending to what’s been a rather dramatic few months for the former Avalanche/Hurricane? — Matiash

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 1: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, N.C.; Sunday, 3 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Devils +1.5 (-160), Hurricanes -1.5 (+135)

• Series winner: Hurricanes (-275), Devils (+225)

• Series length: Four games (+500), five games (+230), six games (+210), seven games (+240)

Best bets: The Devils have been treading water without Jack Hughes since early March, sitting with the 27th-best record in the league since losing their star forward. Coasting into the playoffs and not getting Hughes back is leaving them with a tall order. Making matters worse, Alexander Nikishin is en route to reinforce the Hurricanes with the best defender to come out of the KHL in at least a generation.

These teams split four regular-season meetings, but Hughes played in all of them — so things look a lot different now. With the new look at the top of the Devils’ lineup, Timo Meier is a solid bet to carry the offensive load. Meier to score three or more goals in the series (+190) has a good chance to hit, even if New Jersey doesn’t advance.

For a long shot, Jack Roslovic is worth a sprinkle. He leads all skaters in goals from the regular-season series between these teams and is a +4000 pick to lead the series in goals.

If the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Only three players had more game-winning goals than Sebastian Aho (+4000) this season, and few players could match his efficiency, with nine game winners among his 29 total goals. But if you prefer longer odds, the Hurricanes’ crease might be the place to look. Both Frederik Andersen (100-1) and Pyotr Kochetkov (100-1) have the same odds, but history suggests a timeshare won’t work in the playoffs, so one of them will emerge as the starter.

If the Devils win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Can we still give it to Jack Hughes? Without him, the Devils trail only the Canadiens for Cup odds, so an MVP pick here is a long shot either way. Jacob Markstrom (100-1) will have to be an absolute hero for the Devils to make a run, so he’s a natural first choice. For a longer shot, Meier (500-1) picked up some slack with Hughes out, sharing the team goal lead since the start of March. — Allen

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto; Sunday, 7 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Senators +1.5 (-200), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+165)

• Series winner: Maple Leafs (-185), Senators (+155)

• Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+260), six games (+200), seven games (+200)

Best bets: As strong an overall regular season as the Maple Leafs put up, the Senators have had their number all season. Across three games, the Leafs managed only three goals. Linus Ullmark is part of the problem. Going back three seasons, Ullmark is 5-1-0 against the Leafs with a .931 save percentage. It’s not completely off the wall to look at the Sens as a first-round upset option, especially given this Leafs team’s struggles come the postseason in the past.

Series spread bet: Senators +2.5 (-340). This doesn’t offer a high-margin payout but covers the likely scenarios here. That will pay out (though at short odds) whether the Sens lose 4-2, 4-3 or surprise and win the series. As for scoring, Tim Stutzle had two tallies against the Leafs across three games in the regular season, so taking Stutzle to score two-plus goals in the series (+110) is a tempting positive-odds offer. You can also get spicy and make it three-plus goals (+325). What’s that? Four-plus goals (+1100)? That might be pushing it, but I like the attitude.

If the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Despite the Leafs’ finishing with a division title, oddsmakers still favor nine other teams more than Toronto heading into the playoffs. That means we get some high-payout odds on a Maple Leaf winning the Conn Smythe. Now, layer in the contract drama facing Toronto this offseason … You see where this is going, right? Mitch Marner (+5000) just has to earn the playoff MVP if the Leafs go all the way. If you want long-shot payout odds, consider John Tavares (200-1), as it would be equally as awkward for the Leafs, and his scoring this season has been vintage Tavares (more goals per game than Auston Matthews).

If the Senators win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? The big change for the Senators this offseason was the recruitment of a true No. 1 goaltender. So if they beat the odds and hoist the trophy, it’s probably going to be Linus Ullmark (100-1) who gets them there. — Allen

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 1: T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada; Sunday, 10 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Wild +1.5 (-165), Golden Knights -1.5 (+140)

• Series winner: Wild (+200), Golden Knights (-240)

• Series length: Four games (+550), five games (+240), six games (+200), seven games (+210)

Best Bet: Jack Eichel to score 3+ goals and to record 4+ assists (+210). Does this series go six or even seven games? The odds suggest it should. If so, the Knights’ most prolific forward — back in business after a few contests off due to injury — stands a solid chance to check both boxes. Enjoying the most productive season of his career with 28 goals and 66 assists through 77 contests, the 28-year-old is fully qualified to knock this combo out of the park if given enough opportunities to put up the numbers. It’s also worth noting Eichel has three goals and two helpers versus the Wild in only two matchups this regular campaign.

Series spread bet: Golden Knights -1.5 (-110). Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson could steal one. An inspired performance from the Kirill Kaprizov/Joel Eriksson Ek combo might translate to a second victory. But that could very well be it against a Vegas team that, rather quietly, finished only six points behind the Presidents’ Trophy winners in the standings.

If the Wild win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Kirill Kaprizov (+5000). For the Wild to hold any hope of advancing through the vicious gauntlet peppered with considerably intimidating hurdles in the West, their bona fide superstar will have to be at his productive best. An early Hart candidate before falling to injury, Kaprizov paced out at 1.47 points per game in 34 contests. Now he appears back in healthy form. The Minnesota faithful better hope that’s truly the case.

If the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Mark Stone (+5000). While Jack Eichel (+2000) features as a worthy and favored selection, Stone sports better value as the heart and soul of this Golden Knights squad. Eichel’s linemate is not only capable of denting the scoresheet with valuable regularity — 67 points in 66 games this campaign — but also serves as one of the sport’s best two-way forwards. An inspired well-rounded showing from the straw that often stirs Vegas’ drink will go a long way to securing the club its second Cup in only three years. — Matiash

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1: Capital One Arena, Washington; Monday, 7 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Canadiens +1.5 (-275), Capitals -1.5 (+135)

• Series winner: Capitals (-280), Canadiens (+225)

• Series length: Four games (+475), five games (+230), six games (+210), seven games (+250)

Best bets: Two teams that were popular picks to miss the playoffs before the season now meet in a first-versus-eighth matchup in the East. But the Capitals earned their spot over 82 games, and leaning on preseason expectations to call this series close doesn’t hold up anymore. While the Habs have been playing high-level hockey in the second half, the Caps have been doing it since October.

Series spread bets: With home ice to open, a way to improve the payout on the Capitals series win from -280 is to take the Capitals to win Game 1 and win the series (-135). With all the power on offense and shutdown goaltending from Logan Thompson, it’s also tempting to take the series spread on Washington at -2.5 (+200), meaning the Caps win the series in four or five games.

If the Capitals win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Sidney Crosby has two, so why wouldn’t Alex Ovechkin (+2500) want to match him? Ovi has dialed the Ovechkin-ness to 11 this season, so there is nothing stopping him from getting another MVP if the Caps win, especially as Conn Smythe winners tend to excel in the goal-scoring (or preventing) department. But in the odds-compared-to-importance-to-team department, there is value on the table with Tom Wilson (150-1). With a few key goals at key moments, Wilson could easily jump off the page Justin Williams-style.

If the Canadiens win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? After the stories highlighting Ivan Demidov‘s Conn Smythe clause in his contract, it’s unfortunate he’s not among the available selections in the sportsbook. The Habs are the longest of long shots at +7500 to win the Cup, so all the MVP choices are equally long shots. In fact, Nick Suzuki at 400-1 is the only choice that isn’t 500-1. Given the value put on goals, Cole Caufield or Patrik Laine is probably the way to lean. — Allen

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles; Monday, 10 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Oilers +1.5 (-275), Kings -1.5 (+200)

• Series winner: Oilers (-120), Kings (Even)

• Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+270), six games (+195), seven games (+195)

Best Bet: H2H most goals Kevin Fiala over Zach Hyman (-115). Absent the final full three games of the regular season with an undisclosed injury, Hyman hasn’t scored since March 27. Still no word on whether he’ll be ready to go for Game 1. Skating on a line with Quinton Byfield, Fiala has seven goals in his past eight contests. Modest number aside, sometimes it’s wisest to take the most glaringly obvious path.

Series spread bet: Kings -1.5 (+210). Harboring home-ice advantage in this set, the Kings have lost only six(!) times in regulation at Crypto.com all season. The Oilers are badly, badly banged up, missing several key figures including defender Mattias Ekholm. L.A. in six hardly feels out of reach.

If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Connor McDavid (+1600). He won the honor when they lost in the Final to Florida — the first player to do so on a losing team since 2003 — so just imagine if the Oilers manage to pull it off. For those who want to cover an extra base, Leon Draisaitl serves as a nice hedge at +2000. Guaranteed, Edmonton won’t endure long this spring if its two elite skaters aren’t at their most dangerous.

If the Kings win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Adrian Kempe (+6000). On a team largely built around the pursuit of stifling opponents as effectively as possible, Kempe tops the Kings’ offensive table with 35 goals and 38 helpers. He also has been at his most dangerous to wrap 2024-25, with 15 points in his past nine contests. If L.A. manages to grind its way to hoisting the Cup through a collectively stingy effort, the top-line winger appears favored to stand apart in finding the back of the opposition’s net more often than others. — Matiash

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.

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Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game 1: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Fla.; Tuesday, 8:30 p.m.

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• Game 1 puck line: Lightning -1.5 (+190), Panthers +1.5 (-265)

• Series winner: Lightning (-105), Panthers (-115)

• Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+260), six games (+200), seven games (+200)

Best bets: We try not to read too much into Game 1 odds when evaluating an entire series, but outside of the ice-cold Stars in the West, the Lightning are right there with the Kings as the least-favored home team to open the playoffs. The Cats just seem to have the Bolts’ playoff number. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 4-0-6 against Florida in the regular season over the past three years and just 1-4 in the playoffs during that span.

Among the specials offered, Nikita Kucherov to record seven or more shots on goal in any game (+225) has some intrigue. Against the Panthers this season, he logged nine shot attempts twice, though he hit only five shots on goal in two of those meetings — one being the game in which he was ejected for kneeing Matthew Tkachuk. Kucherov hit the seven-shot mark four times this season and had six or more in 11 different games, although those high totals didn’t come against Florida.

Carter Verhaeghe also has a strong track record against this opponent. He has scored four goals in 11 regular-season games over the past three seasons, plus another five goals in their five-game playoff series last spring. Given that history, his +900 odds to lead the series in goals offer a solid non-chalk option worth a look.

If the Lightning win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? This almost certainly has to be Kucherov (+3,000), as it would feel cruel for Kucherov not to finally get one to match his buddies’ trophies. Andrei Vasilevskiy (+3000) and Victor Hedman (150-1) both already have a Conn Smythe from 2021 and 2020, so this is Kucherov’s turn if the Bolts can add another title to their dynasty.

If the Panthers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? If the Panthers are the team to make it six consecutive years with a Florida team in the Final, they are spoiled for choices when it comes to MVP. In fact, four of the top 20 players with the best odds to win the Conn Smythe play for the Panthers. Sergei Bobrovsky (+2500) was robbed of the trophy last season, so he has improved chances this time around if it’s close. As for long shots, don’t forget that Gustav Forsling (400-1) was being discussed as a surprise winner as the Panthers advanced last season. — Allen

For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.