{"id":5660,"date":"2026-07-02T13:54:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T13:54:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ventil.rs\/blog\/business\/latest-jobs-report-shows-labor-market-is-not-a-source-of-inflationary-pressure\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T13:54:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T13:54:28","slug":"latest-jobs-report-shows-labor-market-is-not-a-source-of-inflationary-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ventil.rs\/blog\/business\/latest-jobs-report-shows-labor-market-is-not-a-source-of-inflationary-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Latest Jobs Report Shows Labor Market Is Not a Source of Inflationary Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Kevin M. Warsh made one thing <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/29\/business\/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-reforms.html\" title=\"\">abundantly clear<\/a> in his first weeks as chairman of the Federal Reserve. With inflation running for five years above the central bank\u2019s 2 percent target, the Fed would put achieving price stability over just about everything else.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">A steady labor market gives Mr. Warsh the space to do so, with data released on Thursday reinforcing the notion that wage pressures are not the primary driver of inflation right now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent in June as more people left the labor force. Average hourly earnings stayed relatively muted, rising 0.3 percent for the month or 3.5 percent compared with the same time last year. The increases have been <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/13\/business\/economy-trillionaire-wealth-wages.html\" title=\"\">more than offset<\/a> by the acceleration in inflation in recent months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Since April, consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/06\/10\/business\/inflation-report-cpi\" title=\"\">three years<\/a>, reflecting a surge in energy costs caused by the war with Iran and a run-up in prices related to the boom in artificial intelligence. In recent weeks, however, oil prices, and those for gasoline, shipping and other categories, have fallen sharply as signs emerged of a deal to end the conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">If that agreement holds, it\u2019s possible that the worst of the recent inflation shock might soon be over. Speaking on Wednesday, Mr. Warsh noted that <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/07\/01\/business\/kevin-warsh-inflation-ecb.html\" title=\"\">inflation risks had moderated<\/a> in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">\u201cExpectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period, they\u2019ve come down. Inflation risks have come down,\u201d Mr. Warsh said at the European Central Bank\u2019s annual gathering of international policymakers and economists in Sintra, Portugal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Still, the Fed\u2019s problems look poised to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/25\/business\/federal-reserve-inflation-pce.html\" title=\"\">linger for longer<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Underlying inflation measures \u2014 ones that strip out volatile items like food and energy and track the rate that prices would rise based on supply and demand in the economy as a whole \u2014 are still too high for the Fed\u2019s liking. There are reasons to be optimistic that after the recent rise in prices caused by the Iran war reverse course, underlying inflation will begin to ease.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">The effect of President Trump\u2019s tariffs on prices has finally <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/economics\/2026\/0505-mau\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">begun to fade<\/a>. Housing-related inflation has firmed in recent months but is expected to decelerate again over time. Wage growth has stayed muted despite the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/what-to-know-about-the-jobs-report.html\" title=\"\">recent stabilization<\/a> of the labor market. And higher productivity from the proliferation of artificial intelligence, if sustained, could eventually <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/20\/business\/ai-productivity-fed-rate-cuts-warsh.html\" title=\"\">help tame prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">But all of this could take time to materialize, leaving policymakers at the Fed in a difficult spot. Moreover, inflation across the services sector, such as transportation and personal care, has been stubbornly sticky. The question now confronting Mr. Warsh is whether interest rates will need to be raised in order to make good on his price stability pledge, something he said in mid-June at his first news conference as Fed chairman would be pursued \u201cunambiguously and unanimously.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Mr. Warsh declined to say on Wednesday whether the Fed would consider raising rates at its next meeting, set for the end of the month, reflecting his <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/18\/business\/federal-reserve-warsh-interest-rates.html\" title=\"\">opposition<\/a> to the central bank sending signals about the outlook. Instead, the only thing he was explicit about was the Fed\u2019s commitment to getting inflation down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">\u201cIf there were people in households or the business sector or the financial markets who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2 percent, well, I guess they\u2019d be disappointed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">\u201cWe\u2019re going to deliver price stability in the U.S.,\u201d Mr. Warsh added, noting that \u201cthe tactics, the strategy, and the rest, that\u2019s still to come.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">But the vacuum left by Mr. Warsh\u2019s approach has already started to be filled by other Fed officials. Beth Hammack, the president of the Cleveland Fed who is one of 12 voting members on the policy-setting committee this year, suggested <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/30\/cleveland-fed-president-hammack-sees-ai-fueling-inflation-says-rate-hikes-may-be-necessary.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">on Tuesday<\/a> that rates at the current 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent range were not weighing heavily on the economy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">\u201cIf inflation continues to persist at these elevated levels and I don\u2019t see any restraint from policy, we may need to raise rates to bring that policy restraint in and to bring inflation back down,\u201d she said in an interview with CNBC.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed who is another voting member this year, has <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/26\/minneapolis-fed-president-neel-kashkari-says-he-expects-a-rate-hike-this-year.html\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">penciled in<\/a> one quarter-point increase by year-end, in line with market expectations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">Robert Sockin, the chief U.S. economist at PGIM, expects the Fed to raise rates in September, reflecting his view that inflation is unlikely to retreat to 2 percent without some policy tightening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-140ip4z e1me5xab0\">A further fall in the unemployment rate would probably raise concerns at the Fed, Mr. Sockin said, noting that \u201cwith slack falling, you have to be concerned that wage pressures are going to accelerate.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/07\/02\/business\/economy\/jobs-report-june-fed-interest-rates-warsh.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kevin M. Warsh made one thing abundantly clear in his first weeks as chairman of the Federal Reserve. With inflation running for five years above the central bank\u2019s 2 percent target, the Fed would put achieving price stability over just about everything else. A steady labor market gives Mr. Warsh the space to do so,&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ventil.rs\/blog\/business\/latest-jobs-report-shows-labor-market-is-not-a-source-of-inflationary-pressure\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &ldquo;Latest Jobs Report Shows Labor Market Is Not a Source of Inflationary Pressure&rdquo;<\/span> &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5661,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/static01.nyt.com\/images\/2026\/07\/02\/multimedia\/02jobs-fed-ckql\/02jobs-fed-ckql-facebookJumbo.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v17.8 (Yoast SEO v22.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Latest Jobs Report Shows Labor Market Is Not a Source of Inflationary Pressure - Breaking News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ventil.rs\/blog\/business\/latest-jobs-report-shows-labor-market-is-not-a-source-of-inflationary-pressure\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Latest Jobs Report Shows Labor Market Is Not a Source of Inflationary Pressure\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kevin M. Warsh made one thing abundantly clear in his first weeks as chairman of the Federal Reserve. With inflation running for five years above the central bank\u2019s 2 percent target, the Fed would put achieving price stability over just about everything else. 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